Which Hand Do You Like?
An interesting NL situation from this week.
A raise and a call preflop. Two players see flop of;
6c 3c 2h
More bets, raises and all chips get in pot.
"Sleazylawyer" has Ac Kc
"SIU grad" has 6h 4h
The two players disagree about who has the advantage in this situation. Others at the table also disagreed about which is the better hand in this situation. What do you think?
Sleazylawyer has 9 flush card outs to win, and the other 6 Aces and Kings. So -- 15 outs/twice.
SIUgrad has top pair - a winner right now, if neither improve. He also has "redraws" which can beat sleazylawyers 6 outs for one pair. Those are an inside str8 draw (only 3 of which are good) a backdoor flush draw, plus two 6's and two 4's.
Which hand would YOU rather have? Opinions at the table varied from 53% - 47% to the reverse of 47%- 53%.
Don't look it up. I already did that, and the results will surprise you.
posted by Abe @ 11:08 AM
1 comments
1 Comments:
RESULTS:
Neither player is a 50% favorite. If you ran this particular situation 100 times, its an actual "coin flip" tie. If you ran this particular situation 1000 times, the AK would win 495 times and the 64 would win 499 times. Six times out of the thousand (6/1000) it would be a tie -- turn and river being a 4 and 5 for the same str8.
Now -- if you change the flop so the 2h is the 2d, it takes away the "runner runner" flush draw. AK is now a 51% favorite.
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